A recent Chainalysis report shows that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will drive a cumulative trading volume of $20 billion in the prediction market, making it the largest single event in this sector to date. The related activities, which began in January 2026, cover nearly 400,000 wallets, with June and July alone contributing $5.7 billion in transactions.
World Cup breaks track record
The trading volume for this World Cup is significantly higher than previous major events. For comparison, the trading volume during the 2024 US presidential election was approximately $3.6 billion. Chainalysis believes the World Cup has raised that record considerably.
Besides the World Cup, the 60th Super Bowl in February 2026 and the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament have each generated over $1 billion in revenue. However, in terms of both total revenue and the scope of participation, neither of these events can compare to the World Cup.
- World Cup cumulative trading volume: US$20 billion
- Trading volume during the event: $5.7 billion
- Number of participating wallets: Nearly 400,000
Betting themes range from champions to player emotions
The report notes that the relevant market is broad, encompassing both standard outcome-based questions like "who will win the World Cup" and more specific tournament scenarios. For example, the market has explored contract strategies based on whether Cristiano Ronaldo would shed tears after Portugal's elimination.
Prediction markets essentially offer derivative contracts based on the outcomes of future events. Settlement is completed once the event occurs. Because sporting events have clearly defined times, high public attention, and predictable results, they are naturally well-suited for prediction markets to quickly accumulate liquidity.
On-chain platforms leverage sporting events to expand their influence
Currently, Polymarket remains one of the most watched platforms in this field. The platform runs on blockchain infrastructure and uses the stablecoin USDC for transactions and settlements. With major sporting events like the World Cup bringing in a large number of users and transactions, prediction markets have become a path for blockchain technology to reach a wider audience.
Chainalysis' data also reflects that prediction markets are no longer limited to political events. Previously, the US presidential election was the most representative traffic driver for this sector, but judging from the performance of the 2026 World Cup, global sporting events are becoming a larger driver of transactions.
Additional information:Polymarket's valuation reached $15 billion during funding discussions in April, and its main competitor, Kalshi, is also expanding, indicating that competition among prediction market platforms is still intensifying.
