Safe Assets vs. Risk Competition: Lessons from BTC and the Stock Market
2026-08-11 19:25:05
According to CoinMeta, the risk-free interest rate in financial markets, namely the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds, has risen again. Cryptocurrency extremists often dismiss this as background noise, but when interest rates surge, they tend to compete with stocks and other assets for capital. History shows that the subsequent market adjustments are often painful. Fidelity Investments' Global Macroeconomics Director Jurrien Timmer pointed out that from the 1960s to the mid-1990s, rising Treasury bond yields led to competition between government bonds and stocks. The crash on Black Monday in 1987 caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plummet by 22.6% in one day. Currently, the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds is hovering at its highest level since 2007, and if Wednesday's U.S. CPI exceeds expectations, it could rise further, validating the Federal Reserve's forecasts of long-term high interest rates. If yields continue to rise, all assets, including stocks and Bitcoin, will need to prove their value with stronger returns or cash flows. The value of Bitcoin depends on its appeal as digital gold and its ability to hedge against the depreciation of fiat currencies. Predictions that Bitcoin prices will rise to $500,000 or even $1,000,000 in the coming years seem a bit far-fetched.
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Source:CoinDesk
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