According to CoinMeta, Galaxy Research conducted backtests on previous bear markets in Bitcoin, using the criterion of a "50% decline in closing price over at least 90 days" to analyze six complete bear markets since 2011 and the current cycle. The results show that while the 50-day moving average recovers quickly, there is more signal noise; among these six bear markets, there were 43 instances of failed recoveries and even lower closing prices. Moreover, none of the first attempts to recover the 50-day moving average managed to confirm a bottom. In contrast, the 50-week moving average provides a more reliable signal, with only 2 failures out of 13 attempts at recovery. Historically, after a bottom is formed, Bitcoin usually manages to re-cross the 50-day moving average within 5-56 days, but crossing this moving average does not signify the end of a bear market. The confirmation by the 50-week moving average is more delayed, typically occurring 130-284 days after the bottom, by which time the price has already risen by 63%-80%. Currently, the price of BTC is around $77,500, which is a 32.4% increase from the low point on June 30th, and the 50-week moving average is at $82,470. If the weekly chart manages to re-cross this level, it could serve as a stronger confirmation of the bottom of the current cycle.