According to CoinMeta, data from CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September has risen to 58.6%, with a 41.4% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in October has dropped to 43.0%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike has risen to 46.0%, and the probability of a 50-basis-point hike is 11.0%. There is a significant divergence in market expectations regarding the Fed's short-term monetary policy path, reflecting an intensification of the battle between investors' views on inflation persistence and economic resilience. The fluctuating probabilities of interest rates remaining unchanged indicate that the market is re-evaluating the end of the tightening cycle, and the growing expectation of hikes is directly pushing up the pressure on short-term financing costs. Current market sentiment is shifting from blind optimism to cautious defense, and funds will further flow towards safe-haven assets.