According to CoinMeta, Rabobank expects the New Zealand Reserve Bank (RBNZ) to raise the overnight cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% on September 2. During the last interest rate hike in July, the RBNZ stated that "further reduction of monetary stimulus may still be necessary." Based on economic forecasts from May, which assume higher oil prices, interest rates could reach 3.0% by the end of the year and remain at that level throughout 2027. Current market pricing is largely in line with these forecasts for 2026, but market expectations for 2027 are more hawkish, despite a decline in energy prices. Another interest rate hike is expected before the end of the year, and the overnight index swap (OIS) curve suggests that rates may tighten further by another 50 basis points, bringing them to 3.50% by mid-2027. In this context, there is room for a dovish risk before the meeting, and it seems that the RBNZ will need to exceed market expectations of aggressive tightening to do so.