The U.S. non-farm payroll report in September will be an important catalyst for the market.
2026-09-04 19:52:43
According to CoinMeta, today's non-farm payroll report is seen as the biggest market catalyst for September. The market expects non-farm employment to increase by 53,000 to 56,000, compared to a decrease of 23,000 in July, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.2%. If the report is weaker than expected, it may reinforce market expectations for the Federal Reserve's loose policies, leading to lower Treasury yields and the US dollar, while supporting stocks, cryptocurrencies, and bonds. However, if the report is extremely weak, especially showing negative growth, it could trigger concerns about an economic recession, leading the market into a broader risk-aversion mode. Conversely, if the report is stronger than expected, it may revive concerns about interest rate hikes, pushing up yields and the US dollar, while putting pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies. The ideal outcome would be for non-farm employment to be slightly below expectations, which could reduce expectations for interest rate hikes without indicating a severe economic downturn.
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Source:X
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