Japan's 2.4% potential inflation opens the possibility for higher terminal interest rates
2026-10-23 09:39:55
According to CoinMeta, analyst Eamonn Sheridan indicates that potential inflation in Japan is accelerating in September, and despite government fuel subsidies, the increase in prices of goods and services continues to widen. These data reinforce market expectations for a interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in December and shift attention to how high interest rates may ultimately rise. Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food but include fuel, rose by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations; however, the index (closely monitored by the BOJ), which excludes fresh food and fuel, rose from 1.9% to 2.4%. Sub-item data shows that price pressures are spreading. Goods inflation increased from 2.6% to 2.8%, and service inflation rose from 1.2% to 1.5%, indicating that businesses are beginning to pass on higher wages to customers. Rising fuel costs related to conflicts in the Middle East, import price increases due to a weaker yen, and strong demand related to artificial intelligence have all weakened the effect of fuel subsidies. This puts the BOJ in front of a familiar balance at next week's meeting: inflation has finally begun to accelerate, but there are signs that the labor market and domestic demand are losing some momentum. How the central bank describes this balance in its outlook report may shape market expectations for policy interest rates after December.
Source:Jin10 Data
This content is for market information only and does not constitute investment advice.
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