According to CoinMeta, as reported by Decrypt, the prediction market misjudged the outcome of the Brazilian presidential election. Polymarket estimated Lula’s chances of winning at only 20% before the election day, but he ultimately succeeded in being elected. Experts point out that this misjudgment stemmed from Brazil’s ban on prediction markets, which diluted the professionalism of the market due to retail investors participating. Lula defeated his right-wing opponent Jair Bolsonaro in the Sunday election. Bolsonaro led in the first round of voting in early October but failed to win a majority, necessitating a second round. Lula’s victory in the second round marks the beginning of his fourth presidential term. Despite Lula having only a 20% chance of winning and Bolsonaro having 80% on election day, the market reacted slowly and failed to adjust the odds in a timely manner. Analysts believe that the negative sentiment among retail traders towards Lula led to an overestimation of Bolsonaro’s chances of victory. In April, Brazil imposed a complete ban on prediction market platforms, with the Finance Minister stating that these platforms violated gambling regulations and lacked proper regulation.