San Francisco Fed Research: Abnormal Climate Conditions Could Push Up Inflation in the U.S. by 2027 and Boost Employment
2026-11-03 04:46:40
According to CoinMeta, a latest economic research report from the Federal Reserve of San Francisco indicates that this year's extremely strong El Niño phenomenon may drive up prices of food and core services in the United States, and could boost employment in 2027. The study estimates that El Niño has already caused personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the U.S. from April to July this year to be about 0.3 percentage points higher than they otherwise would have been, and it is expected that this impact will subside by the end of the year. However, if next year sees a transition to La Niña ("anti-El Niño") phenomena, inflation (PCE) in 2027 could rise by an additional 1 percentage point. In terms of employment, the impact of El Niño on non-farm employment is usually not noticeable in the first year, but it can lead to job growth and a decrease in unemployment rates in the following year. Researchers emphasize that this is not an inflation forecast, but rather a reminder of the potential upward risks to inflation next year. Currently, the intensity of El Niño exceeds all cases in historical records. Relevant research samples, which have only included 22 El Niño events since the 1950s, have only seen 4 instances of extremely strong El Niño conditions among them.
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Source:Jin10 Data
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