Institutions: India may raise interest rates further in the coming months, with short-term bonds expected to fall further behind long-term bonds
2026-11-09 10:10:48
According to CoinMeta, as liquidity and the monetary environment tighten, demand for interest rate-sensitive bonds in the market is being suppressed, and it is likely that Indian short-term bonds will once again underperform long-term bonds. Based on the forecasts of IDFC First Bank and Deutsche Bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may further raise interest rates in the coming months, with a potential increase of up to 75 basis points. Previously, the RBI raised rates by 25 basis points on October 7th. At the same time, the RBI is withdrawing liquidity from the banking system, and the excess funds have decreased from their historical high at the beginning of September. This impact has already been reflected in the bond market: at the beginning of this month, the yield spread between short and long-term bonds narrowed to its lowest level since May, but then widened again as crude oil prices fell. Karur Vysya Bank, the head of finance, stated: "Short-term bonds are more sensitive to immediate interest rate expectations and liquidity conditions. Given the current inflation trend, there is still a possibility of further rate hikes in the future, and it is expected that these types of bonds will continue to underperform."
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Source:Jin10 Data
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