Bitcoin has rebounded by about 22% in the past month, but Nansen believes that this round of recovery is not sufficient to confirm the onset of a new bull market. The institution pointed out that spot capital flows, changes in ETF subscriptions and redemptions, and the structure of derivative positions are still weak, and the short-term trend lacks more stable buying support.
Spot capital flows remain cautious.
Nansen Senior Research Analyst: N-token Issuance lai Sø ndergaard indicates that the daily and weekly trends of Bitcoin have improved, suggesting that the weakest phase of the previous decline may have passed. However, recent data does not fully support the conclusion of a "bull market confirmation."
He mentioned that Bitcoin is currently still below the 7-day average, indicating weak short-term momentum. Over the past week, the entities tracked by Nansen have transferred a total of about 3,700 BTC to exchanges net. Funds entering exchanges usually signify potential selling pressure, so this data has weakened his confidence in the sustainability of this round of rebound.
Previously, Bitcoin recorded its strongest performance for the same period since 2017 in August, and there was also a strong one-week net inflow in US spot Bitcoin ETF. However, Nansen believes that the earlier buying orders were not sufficient to completely offset the subsequent outflows, and the market still needs continuous spot demand to indicate that the trend has shifted from a rebound to a more sustained upward cycle.
Big whale positions show divergence
Looking at the positions of large accounts, there is no consensus in one direction in the market either. Some of the giant whale addresses tracked by Nansen are still slightly bullish, but on Hyperliquid, accounts trading in large notional values still maintain a significant short position.
At the same time, the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains positive, although not at a high level, indicating that long positions are still incurring costs, but the market has not reached a state of overcrowding. The number of open contracts is decreasing, suggesting that the total derivative exposure is shrinking; active trading data also shows that selling pressure in the market continues.
Nansen believes that this structure suggests that Bitcoin could rebound in the short term due to short covering. If prices rise, some shorts may be forced to close their positions, which could further push up prices. However, such a leveraged increase does not necessarily indicate that a breakout in the market has been achieved.
The institution also points out the following key positions: If Bitcoin falls below $76,400, leveraged long positions may come under pressure, and the local bottom structure could also be challenged. Bitcoin recently fell back to around $76,500, after having briefly topped $81,000 earlier on.
To return to $80,000, we still need to look at the demand for ETF.
Sø ndergaard indicates that for this round of repairs to be more stable, Bitcoin first needs to regain and hold the range between $77,400 and $77,650. If this area is effectively reclaimed, $80,000 will once again become the focus of market attention.
He believes that stronger spot trading volumes and improving ETF capital flows are important conditions for confirming market trends. At the same time, funding rates need to remain moderate, and open positions should gradually increase, which indicates that the market is increasing its risk exposure, but there is no obvious leverage imbalance yet.
If Bitcoin encounters resistance around $80,000 again, and while the net inflows into exchanges remain high and derivative positions expand once more, without new spot buying following suit, then this round of gains will rely more on leverage, and the risk of subsequent pullbacks will also increase.
The macro environment is still exerting pressure.
In addition to on-chain and derivative data, the macroeconomic environment is also one of the reasons why Nansen remains cautious. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is approaching 4.80%, and concerns about oil prices and inflation have pushed up bond yields. Rising real interest rates typically weaken the attractiveness of interest-free assets.
Nansen also mentioned that the total supply of stablecoins is approximately $310 billion, with limited growth recently, indicating that the increase in off-exchange funds is not significant. At the same time, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path have tightened again, and interest rate prospects continue to affect the performance of risky assets.
This week, U.S. employment data will become the next focus of attention. According to reports, the private sector in the U.S. added 38,000 new jobs in August, which is lower than market expectations. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on non-farm employment, unemployment rates, and wage growth on September 4th, and these figures may continue to influence the trends of Bitcoin and overall risk assets.
Another signal worth noting comes from Strategy. The company purchased 4,603 units of BTC from August 24 to 30, for a total amount of approximately $369.7 million, ending a pause in purchases that lasted for over two months. Although corporate buying continues, Nansen believes that the increase in holdings by a single company is not sufficient to replace a broader confirmation of spot demand.
