As oil prices rise, the price of Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a range after failing to stabilize above $84,000.
As doubts about the "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine deepened, Bitcoin (BTC) lost some of the gains it made at the beginning of this week before Wall Street opened on Monday.
Key points:
- Amid market tensions over oil supply and the Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire," Bitcoin briefly rose to $84,250 before falling by 2.2%.
- Analysis suggests that despite improvements in shipping volumes, the oil market still includes an excessive amount of 'risk premium'.
- BTC Options traders adopted a 'defensive' stance, but still retained the potential for an upward movement of $90,000 or more.
Brent crude oil breaks above $107, Bitcoin under pressure
TradingView data shows that BTC / USD reached $84,254 on Bitstamp, setting a new high since last Wednesday, before subsequently falling by up to 2.2%.
BTC / USD One-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph / TradingView
During this decline, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of continuing to target energy infrastructure, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a suspension of such attacks. Meanwhile, Iran reported that an oil tanker was attacked and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices reacted sharply to this, with WTI crude oil soaring above $94 per barrel for a time, and Brent crude oil reaching $107.25, the highest level since September 16.
Four-hour chart of Brent crude oil spread contracts. Source: Cointelegraph / TradingView
Before this wave of gains, the market was already on edge due to the upcoming release of key U.S. inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) and Producer Price Index ( PPI ) scheduled to be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Cointelegraph previously reported that CPI is particularly sensitive to rising oil prices.
Former Goldman Sachs chief foreign exchange strategist Robin Brooks commented that the oil market has already factored in “excessive risk premiums” and pointed out that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is improving.
In a blog post on that day, he wrote: "The amount of oil flowing out of the Persian Gulf is about 13 million barrels per day, whereas it was at a high of 16.5 million barrels per day just a few weeks ago. This is still much better than during the most intense period of the war in March and April, but oil prices have returned to high levels."
BTC Buy orders seek to hold above $82,000
Looking ahead to the possible price targets for BTC, trading firm QCP Capital indicates that the Bitcoin options market exhibits dual characteristics: on one hand, positions are more 'defensive', and on the other hand, traders are still considering the possibility of an upward breakout.
In its latest analysis, the company concluded: "Implied volatility remains strong even as spot prices fall back within the range, and risk reversals indicate that the premium on put options is not as pronounced as usual. Overall, the market's defensive positions are not as heavy, but they still price in the possibility of a breakout."
"If we can comfortably reach $87,000, then $94,000 will come into sight."
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital pointed out on that day that $83,400 was a local resistance level, which corresponded to the area around $77,000 from mid-August to September 21st, when BTC / USD made a breakout upwards from there.
BTC / USD Daily Chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
CoinGlass data shows that the liquidity of sell orders on the exchange is concentrated around $84,500, with a total scale of approximately $180 million. Buy orders are increasing around $82,000, and as of this report, the spot price is moving towards that level.
Bitcoin liquidation heat map. Source: CoinGlass
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