Tesla has lowered its capital expenditure expectations for 2026. In the latest Q3 10-Q report, the company stated that it expects capital expenditures in 2026 to “exceed $20 billion,” which is lower than the “over $25 billion” figure it has been stating since April.
Tesla's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 continues to change
Tesla initially set its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 at around $20 billion. In April, the company raised this figure to over $25 billion; in July, Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja reiterated this figure again, while Elon Musk stated that 2026 would be a "big year for capital expenditure."
Nowadays, this figure has once again reached "over $20 billion".
Tesla has spent $13.01 billion so far this year: $2.49 billion in the first quarter, $5.79 billion in the second quarter, and $4.73 billion in the third quarter. To reach $25 billion, it would need to spend about $12 billion in the fourth quarter alone, which would be more than twice its largest single-quarter expenditure in history. The new lower limit would only require about $7 billion.
10-Q shows that in 2026, expenditures will be driven by our SI plan, which includes investments in computing infrastructure and data centers. This also encompasses the ramp-up of factory operations, as well as Tesla's fleet of assets "operated by the company and supporting SI."
However, there is another issue with the cash data. By the end of September, Tesla had $3.67 billion in equipment and construction expenses recorded as liabilities, which means that these expenses have been recognized in the accounts but have not yet been paid for. In contrast, this figure was $2.63 billion at the end of June and $1.63 billion a year ago. Therefore, Tesla's actual spending pace is faster than the cash capital expenditures it reports.
Where Does Tesla's Q3 Free Cash Flow Come From?
Tesla reported an operating cash flow of $6.26 billion, and a free cash flow of $1.53 billion after deducting capital expenditures. The process of its formation is as follows:
Depreciation and stock-based compensation are considered normal items to be added back. They will reduce profits, but they do not consume cash.
Working capital is the item that deserves the most attention. Without these $2.59 billion, Tesla's free cash flow would have been approximately negative $1.06 billion.
Most of it comes from Tesla's unpaid bills. Accounts payable increased by $1.92 billion this quarter, and accrued liabilities increased by $1.95 billion, including an increase of $722 million in "accrued purchases," which means Tesla has received the goods but has not yet received the invoices.
Another $1.26 billion came from deferred revenue, which is mainly related to the energy storage business. Tesla's energy deferred revenue increased from $2.31 billion to $3.30 billion. However, this is not all in cash. Tesla disclosed that it has issued a bill of $588 million for Megapack to SpaceX, but the related products "have not yet been delivered," and SpaceX has not made payment at the end of the quarter. This amount is recorded both as deferred revenue and accounts receivable, with accounts receivable increasing by $565 million.
These incremental portions were offset by prepaid expenses of $1.82 billion and other assets, as well as a slight increase in inventory.
If we also include the additional $103 million in unpaid capital expenditures, Tesla's free cash flow, calculated on an "actual expenditure" basis, is closer to $500 million.
Tesla's Borrowing Plan
This reduction in capital expenditures comes a month after Tesla signed a new credit arrangement worth $30 billion. The 10-Q report provides detailed information on these arrangements: a $20 billion extension of a regular loan that is due in 2029; and a $10 billion revolving credit line that replaces the previous $5 billion line. By the end of the quarter, Tesla had not utilized either of these financing tools and held $45.4 billion in cash and investments.
Views of Electrek
Under today's accounting standards, none of these are considered improper practices – we could even say that these standards are quite poor. Paying suppliers later, collecting deposits, and recording expenses only when they are incurred are all considered normal accounting practices to some extent, and Tesla has also disclosed this in its financial reports. However, these factors explain why the headline of “$1.5 billion in free cash flow” in Tesla’s earnings report on Wednesday did not convey as strong a message as it might have seemed.
Looking at it more deeply, Tesla achieved an operating profit of $718 million, a figure that is even lower than its $1.17 billion in stock-based compensation; before the change in working capital, the company was actually consuming cash. These timing factors that helped with cash flow this quarter will reverse when invoices are due and Megapack shipments are made.
A reduction in capital expenditures is the signal that deserves more attention. Six months ago, Tesla was telling investors that 2026 would be a year of significant spending, dedicated to building AI computing power, Optimus, and Cybercab. Now, the company is lowering its targets in its 10-Q report rather than in its shareholder letter, and at the same time, it has arranged for $30 billion in debt. Either these projects have been postponed to 2027, or Tesla is reducing its spending in order to preserve cash. Tesla should clarify which scenario is the case.
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