On October 15th, Tesla showcased a new generation of Roadster sports cars at its facility in SpaceX Texas. Utilizing thrusters developed by SpaceX, the cars performed stunts such as brief levitation, in an attempt to restore market confidence through technological demonstrations that break away from traditional automotive performance. However, the boost in stock price brought about by this debut did not last. Since the beginning of this year, Tesla's stock value has declined by approximately 17%, making it the weakest performer among the "Big Seven" companies in the U.S. stock market. Wall Street analysts generally believe that Roadster is more likely to become the flagship model for showcasing Tesla's technical prowess and high-end brand image, rather than a significant source of short-term revenue and profits. Meanwhile, the company's third-quarter revenue remained flat year-over-year, and its free cash flow decreased by 62%, prompting investors to pay closer attention to the commercialization prospects of its AI, autonomous driving, and robotics businesses.

I. Roadster showcases the propeller-assisted takeoff, with production planned for 2028.

Tesla's new generation of Roadster showcased this time is equipped with a propulsion system developed by SpaceX, which can utilize compressed gas to provide additional thrust, enabling special maneuvers such as brief lift-off from the ground. The debut of this new vehicle has drawn market attention, but the related functions are still in the demonstration stage and not yet suitable for daily road use.

According to Tesla's disclosed product plans, Roadster will be available in three versions. The Performance version is mainly designed for regular road driving; the Thrust version is equipped with rear cold gas propellers to enhance acceleration performance on racetracks; the Rocket version uses multiple propellers to achieve short-term flying maneuvers and is intended to be offered only to invited customers, featuring a one-seater design.

However, Tesla has not yet confirmed the final selling prices, mass production technical specifications, or customer delivery times for each version. Musk previously stated that the new generation of Roadster could enter mass production in 2028, which is nearly a decade since the initial release of the second generation Roadster.

Analysts believe that the main value of Roadster lies in demonstrating Tesla's engineering and technical capabilities, as well as reinforcing the brand's high-performance image. Due to its premium positioning and limited potential production volume, even if mass production is successful, it is unlikely to make a significant contribution to Tesla's overall car sales and profits in the short term.

II. Stock price has fallen by approximately 25% from its historical high, and free cash flow in the third quarter decreased by 62%.

At the time of its debut, Roadster, Tesla's stock price was still under significant pressure. The company's stock price reached a historical high of $498.33 in December 2025, but then fell to $297.38 by the end of July this year. As of the time of this report, the stock price has dropped by about 25% from its historical high, and it has also seen a cumulative decline of about 17% over the past 52 weeks as well as since the beginning of this year.

Recently, driven by third-quarter earnings and rumors of a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX, Tesla's stock price has risen by about 5% over the past five trading days. However, the overall trend remains quite volatile. In terms of technical indicators, the stock price has returned above the 20-day moving average but is still below the 200-day moving average. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 51, indicating some stabilization in the short term, but a clear long-term upward trend has not yet formed.

Fundamentally speaking, Tesla's revenue in the third quarter of 2026 was $28.05 billion, which was basically flat year-on-year and slightly lower than market expectations; the adjusted earnings per share were $0.48, higher than analysts' forecasts, but down 4% from $0.50 in the same period last year.

The company delivered 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, of which Model and Model Y together delivered 478,237 vehicles, while other vehicle models accounted for 8,295 deliveries. Automotive sales revenue decreased by 1% to $20.1 billion, and the total revenue from the automotive business fell by 3% to $20.6 billion; revenue from energy generation and energy storage services decreased by 16% to $2.88 billion, with an energy storage system deployment capacity of 13.7 gigawatt-hours.

In terms of cash flow, Tesla's operating cash flow in the third quarter reached $6.3 billion, but capital expenditures increased by 110% year-on-year to $4.73 billion, resulting in a 62% year-on-year decrease in free cash flow to $1.53 billion. As of the end of the quarter, the company's total cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments amounted to $45.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%.

Although cash reserves remain sufficient, the slowdown in growth of its automotive business and the expansion of capital expenditures have drawn more attention to whether Tesla can convert its long-term investments in AI and the robotics field into actual profits.

III. Tesla lowers its annual capital expenditure guidance; autonomous driving and robotics businesses become focal points of attention

Tesla recently lowered its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 from over $25 billion to approximately $20 billion, a reduction of about 20%. The company has not yet clarified which projects will see cuts, raising concerns among investors regarding the progress of AI, autonomous driving, and robotics business expansion.

Meanwhile, Tesla is accelerating the commercialization of its autonomous driving business. In the third quarter, the company recorded a record number of new subscribers to its full autonomous driving system (FSD), with over 75% of newly delivered cars in North America including (FSD) subscription services. Tesla has also obtained regulatory approvals in Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, expanding the number of European Union countries covered by (FSD) to nine.

In terms of business, Tesla has begun to deploy the Cybercab model into its fleet in Austin, Texas. By the end of the third quarter, the unmanned Robotaxi had accumulated nearly 2 million miles of travel. The operating hours in Austin have been extended from 6 a.m. to midnight every day, and the company is working to reduce passenger waiting times by increasing the number of vehicles and optimizing scheduling algorithms.

Tesla has also integrated the Grok artificial intelligence assistant into Cybercab, enabling users to manage emails, calendars, files, and chat functions without manual operation.

Despite progress in related businesses, Wall Street still expects Tesla's earnings per share to decline by 35% year-on-year to $0.71 in fiscal year 2026, but is expected to rebound by 66% to $1.18 in 2027. The core issue of concern for the market is whether FSD, Robotaxi, and the humanoid robot Optimus will be able to generate sufficient revenue and profits in the future to support the company's long-term valuation.

IV. Wall Street believes that the short-term contribution of Roadster is limited, and expectations for a merger between Tesla and SpaceX are heating up.

For the Roadster presentation this time, Wall Street institutions generally believe that its technical performance is attractive, but the impact on short-term financial results is limited.

Analyst Dan Ives ( Dan Ives ) believes that if the mass production scale of Roadster is limited, its direct contribution to Tesla's sales and revenue may be small, but it could help restore the brand image and demonstrate the company's engineering capabilities. Ives also predicts that the likelihood of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX by the end of 2027 is 80%. This prediction is based on the analyst's personal judgment, as neither company has announced any formal merger plans yet.

Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its 'overweight' rating on Tesla and a target price of $485 after the presentation at Roadster. The bank believes the demonstration was impressive, but does not expect Roadster to have a substantial impact on the company's short-term earnings.

UBS raised its target price for Tesla from $391 to $425 after its third-quarter financial report, maintaining a "neutral" rating, and increased its earnings per share forecasts for 2027 and 2028, mainly considering the growth in FSD subscriptions, as well as the potential contribution of energy storage and Robotaxi businesses. UBS also raised its target price for Piper Sandler from $450 to $475, maintaining a "overweight" rating, believing that several profit drivers for Tesla are improving.

According to the aggregated data, among the 41 analysts covering Tesla, 14 gave a 'strong buy' rating, 2 gave a 'moderate buy' rating, 22 recommended holding, and another 3 recommended a 'strong sell'. The average target price of the analysts was $409.53, which corresponds to a potential upside of about 10% compared to the stock price at that time, with the highest target price reaching $600.

However, Tesla's current valuation is still relatively high, with an expected price-earnings ratio of about 529 times and a price-to-sales ratio of about 15.6 times, both of which are significantly higher than the average levels in the automotive industry. This indicates that the market has high expectations for the company's future AI, autonomous driving, and robotics business growth.

Roadster can bring technical demonstrations and brand attention to Tesla, but its short-term contribution to sales and profits is expected to be limited. Compared to the commercialization prospects of flying sports cars, whether Tesla can improve the profitability of its automotive business, maintain cash flow growth, and realize the long-term revenue potential of Robotaxi and FSD remains the main factors affecting stock price performance.