iPhone Manufacturer Apple is set to release its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 after the close of U.S. markets on Monday, November 2nd. Since the beginning of this year, driven by the resilience of iPhone sales and growth in its service business, Apple's stock price has risen by more than 27%. However, supply chain constraints and rising prices of memory chips are starting to weigh on its performance. Before the release of the financial report for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, analysts' views on Apple have diverged, with the average target price on Wall Street suggesting a slight downside risk for the stock price compared to its current level.
At the same time, option trading pricing shows that after the financial report was released, the stock price of AAPL fluctuated by approximately 4.25% in both directions.
Apple's revenue in the third fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased by 16% year-on-year. At that time, the company predicted that due to unfavorable exchange rates and supply chain constraints affecting iPhone, Mac, and iPad, the growth rate of revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter would slow down.
Wall Street consensus expects Apple's earnings per share ( EPS ) for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 to be $1.99, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%; revenue is expected to grow by 10.6% to $113.4 billion.
Bernstein analyst Mark Newman maintains an 'Buy' rating on Apple with a target price of $370. This five-star analyst noted that in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, global iPhone shipments saw a year-over-year growth slowdown to 2%, lower than the 5% in the second quarter and 12% in the same period last year. The decline in growth was mainly due to a 9% year-over-year decrease in terminal sales in September, which ended Apple's 18-month streak of shipment growth. Newman stated that the decline in sales was caused by the iPhone 18 standard version being postponed to spring 2027 for release.
Newman also pointed out that despite the pressures in the industry environment, Apple's global smartphone market share increased from 20% in the second quarter to 21% in the third quarter of 2026, with a single-month share of 24% in September. Overall, sales were strong in July and August, but Apple's global sales momentum weakened in September. He mentioned that in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2026, iPhone sales fell short of market expectations; however, revenue from its services business was about 1% higher than expected.
Analyst Brian White from Monness maintains a "buy" rating for AAPL and has raised the target price from $335 to $355. He stated, "Apple continues to launch industry-leading innovative products and is accelerating the implementation of Apple Intelligence; however, supply chain tensions still exist, and the macroeconomic environment carries higher risks." White expects Apple's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter to reach $114.21 billion, with a EPS of $2.05 per share, both forecasts exceeding market consensus.
This five-star analyst stated that the year-over-year revenue growth rate for the fourth fiscal quarter he projected is 11%. Although this is a decline from 16% in the third fiscal quarter, it is still higher than the 8% growth rate seen during the same period last year. White also expects Apple's iPhone revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter to grow by 16% to $56.89 billion year-over-year; in comparison, the growth rate in the third fiscal quarter was 22%, and for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, it is projected to be 6%. Regarding the services business, he predicts that service revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter will grow by 10% to $31.51 billion year-over-year, which is lower than the 12% growth rate in the third fiscal quarter of the year.
Responsible Editor: Jiang Xuesi
