In 2024, Donald Trump seemed to make progress among Indian Americans, a demographic that traditionally favors the Democratic Party. According to a report released by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on November 2, he received 30% support from Indian Americans that year, up from 22% in 2020. Charts in the report show that support for the Republican Party continued to rise among Indian American women and men aged 40 and above until around January of this year.

But two years into Trump's second term, before the midterms, these improvements had disappeared. A survey conducted by Carnegie from October 7 to October 27 among 1,000 Indian-American adults found that only 19% intended to vote for Republicans in their congressional district's House of Representatives elections, while 62% intended to vote for Democrats. In the Senate races, Democrats also led Republicans with a margin of 63% to 21%.

This reversal is related to the Trump administration's tightening of policies on legal immigration and restrictions on H1-B visas, as well as the increasingly overt anti-Indian rhetoric from some Republicans. It is also associated with renewed concerns over living costs. These factors combined have weakened the Republican Party's appeal to American Indians, who it had even begun to win over.

Devesh Kapur, a professor of South Asian studies at Johns Hopkins University and one of the co-authors of the Carnegie report, told Fortune magazine that economic issues in 2024 drove Indian Americans towards Trump, as voters were dissatisfied with inflation and rising living costs during Joe Biden's tenure.

But the same anxiety, coupled with Trump's immigration policies and the rise in anti-Indian racism, has caused Indian-American voters to drift away from the Republican Party once again.

"This is a combination of these three factors," he said.

An obvious example of the "racist remarks in the MAGA camp" mentioned by Kapoor occurred in September: Bo French, the Republican candidate for Texas Railroad Commissioner, posted a photo on X showing a group of South Asian students celebrating a victory in football at the University of Texas at Austin.

“I heard that this year’s graduation ceremony for UT looks just like that,” French wrote. “I can’t believe it. The problem is obviously much more serious than anyone imagined.”

Despite the condemnation of this post by members of his party, including Senator John Cornyn, its existence has once again raised concerns among Indian Americans that the Republican Party does not truly welcome this community.

Amrita Bhasin, CEO of Sotira, a supply chain platform driven by AI, told Fortune magazine that more public anti-South Asian remarks by political figures are more likely to turn away Indian-American voters than simple changes in immigration policies.

"I actually don't think racism is more severe now than it was before Trump took office," she said, "The difference is that politicians and those in power now feel they can openly say racist things, especially things directed at people from South Asia."

In her view, Trump's proposal in August to impose a surcharge of $103,265 on companies that employ workers with H1-B visas also had some effect. Holders of H1-B visas generally cannot vote, but American Indians may have relatives, friends, or colleagues whose ability to work in the United States depends on this program.

Indians account for 71% of all H1-B visa approvals, and they also constitute a large proportion in tech positions and other high-skilled occupations. Therefore, these restrictions convey the message that they do not belong here, said Basing.

“I think H1-B is part of it, but to be more precise, H1-B is a symptom of a larger problem,” she said. “When you see that this kind of work is not given the same respect, you start to feel that the Republican Party may not really be on the side of Indians.”

Religion has become another dividing line.

For a long time, the Republican Party has believed that American Indians should accept their policy platform. David Frum, a former speechwriter for George W. Bush, once referred to American Indians as "naturally conservative voters," citing their higher incomes, higher level of education, and entrepreneurial spirit.

Indian-American journalist and current senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, Sudhansan Dume, wrote in 2012 for the conservative American Enterprise Institute that "interests, values, and history all indicate that the natural political home for Indian-Americans is the Republican Party."

However, Kapoor stated that the "increasing influence of evangelical Christianity" within the Republican Party limits its appeal to Indian-American voters. A Carnegie report found that nearly one-third of Indian-American Christians (31%) identify with the Republican Party, compared to 21% for Hindus, 10% for Muslims, and only 8% for those without any religious affiliation.

“Since most people are not Christians, that in itself becomes a clear obstacle,” Caple said. “There’s no way to bypass it.”

The tensions brought about by religion are particularly evident in Texas politics. In 2023, Democratic state legislator James Taralico pointed out during a legislative hearing that a Republican bill requiring public schools to display the Ten Commandments could alienate Hindu students.

“What do you think a Hindu student would feel when they see posters in every classroom that say ‘You shall not have any other gods but Me’?” he asked.

Three years later, Taralico defeated Republican candidate Ken Paxton to become the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat from Texas since 1988. In Fort Bend County, which includes the Houston suburb of Sugar City and its sizable Indian American community, Taralico received 63% of the votes according to the county election results, while Paxton came in at nearly 35%.

However, the fact that Indian Americans voted against the Republican Party in the midterms does not necessarily mean they have a stronger loyalty to the Democratic Party. A Carnegie report shows that about 35% of Indian Americans who planned to vote for the Democratic Party in the midterms stated that their motivation was to oppose the Republican Party, rather than to support the Democratic Party.

"Anger or disgust towards the Republican Party is clearly an important factor, even more so than support for the Democratic Party itself," said Capul.