Willy Woo: The probability of Bitcoin signatures being cracked within 20 years is as high as 76%
2026-10-12 11:35:30
According to CoinMeta, the results of the AI model assessment shared by on-chain analyst Willy Woo show that the probability of Bitcoin digital signatures being cracked within 20 years is as high as 76%. Researchers used four different models to evaluate Bitcoin ECDSA and Schnorr signatures. Among them, the model provided by ChatGPT-6 and Astra indicates a 20-year cracking probability of around 76%, Claude at 66%, Grok at 60%, and DeepSeek at 34%. The models regard quantum computing as a major long-term threat, estimating a cracking probability of 0% to 2% in the next two years. Currently, there are no practical classical cryptographic analysis methods available to crack secp256k1.
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Source:Internet
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