As discussions about the risks of artificial intelligence heat up in the market, some institutional participants have begun to incorporate extreme scenarios into their asset allocation frameworks. Foreign media reports that although such concerns are still considered tail risks, once AI is used to attack financial systems, bank accounts, or cryptocurrency wallets, market volatility could rapidly intensify.
The cybersecurity sector attracts attention.
Business Insider quotes the view of Peter Berezin, the chief economist, stating that cybersecurity stocks are one of the most direct beneficiaries. The reason is that if companies and institutions are concerned about AI being used to invade systems, they will inevitably need to accelerate their efforts to enhance their defense capabilities.
Berezin mentioned that the risks associated with AI are not limited to model runaway; they also include malicious actors using AI to launch attacks. The extreme scenarios he envisioned include AI infiltrating the US military system or penetrating financial infrastructure, thereby withdrawing funds from bank accounts and cryptocurrency wallets.
The report also mentioned that investors have been paying more attention to the security threats posed by AI this year. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF tracking this sector has risen by 31% within the year.
Gold and short-term debt are regarded as hedging tools.
In terms of safe-haven assets, both Berezin and Siebert Financial, as well as Chief Investment Officer Mark Malek, mentioned gold. Both believe that if the security of financial accounts and digital wallets is questioned, the attractiveness of assets like gold, which do not rely on the digital account system, may increase.
Berezin indicates that in the event of AI intrusions into financial accounts, gold may benefit more than most asset classes. Malek believes that, in addition to gold, other metals may also come into the focus of some investors, especially those who regard AI extreme risks as more significant.
Malek also mentioned that if there is a sudden shock in the market, he would prefer to hold short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. He believes that such assets are more suitable for holding funds during times of risk aversion, and the current yield levels are still attractive.
According to reports, the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.41% on Wednesday, the yield on one-year Treasury bonds was 4.16%, and the yield on six-month Treasury bonds also exceeded 4%.
Physical assets have also been included in the discussion.
In addition to financial assets, Berezin also mentions physical assets such as land and natural resources. He believes that if investors' trust in digital assets declines, the relative attractiveness of physical assets will increase.
The article also points out that such views are not the mainstream market consensus. Malek indicates that he still regards most of the AI doomsday theories as low-probability events, but he does not believe that their probability of occurrence is zero. For the market, this means that discussions about AI risks are gradually extending from a technical and ethical perspective to cyber security, financial stability, and the pricing of risk-averse assets.
