Foreign media reports that Oracle will release its financial report after the market closes on Thursday, and the options market has already reflected strong expectations for volatility in advance. Based on current option prices, the market expects the stock's daily volatility to be around 11% after the financial report, which is higher than the average of 9.5% during the past three quarters on reporting days.
Option pricing reflects expectations of significant volatility.
This pricing is not without basis. In September 2025, Oracle saw a single-day increase of 35% after its financial report was released, significantly exceeding market expectations. Now, as traders look back on this period of history, they also have to digest the impact of the CPI data from the United States, which will be announced the following day, resulting in further increases in the premium of options before the financial report is released.
From the perspective of position distribution, there are significantly more open contracts for call options than for put options. What is more noteworthy is that at execution prices close to the current price, the prices of call options are also higher than those of the corresponding put options. This means that the cost the market pays for upward exposure is actually higher than the protection it seeks against downward movements.
The premium on the bullish side is higher than that on the bearish side.
Taking the weekly contract that expires on September 11 as an example, as of the close on September 9, the put option with an exercise price of $144 was quoted at around $2.34, which is $17.71 below the current price; the call option with an exercise price of $180 was quoted at around $3.90, which is $18.28 above the current price.
In the U.S. stock market, this structure is not common. Usually, investors are willing to pay a higher premium to protect themselves against declines, which is why put options tend to be more expensive. The article mentions that Oracle has shown a similar tendency multiple times in the past year before its financial reports, and this characteristic has become even more pronounced in the recent week.
Market attention: Whether the investment in AI will pay off
Foreign media believes that this bullish bias may stem from several factors. Firstly, the stock price of Oracle had already risen by about 15% in the week before its financial report, and some funds may be seeking short-term momentum. Secondly, the company has seen rapid gains in stock prices after its financial reports in recent quarters, and traders are concerned of missing similar opportunities. Thirdly, since the stock price rebounded from its 52-week low in July, market optimism regarding the company's business trend has increased.
The article also mentioned that both Microsoft and Amazon received positive market feedback in their most recent financial reporting quarters as the investments in AI began to show returns. After disclosing strong revenue growth, Amazon's stock price rose by more than 15%; Microsoft, on the other hand, saw its stock price increase by about 15.5% due to accelerated growth in future orders, which alleviated market concerns about too rapid spending on AI.
For Oracle, the market is clearly also waiting for similar signals: whether large-scale AI infrastructure investments can bring more definite revenue support. However, the article also points out that the bigger question remains whether the company can continue to fund this round of expansion without further increasing financial pressure.
