Foreign media: Ripple, the Chief Technology Officer of David Schwartz, stated during a Twitter Spaces discussion this week that if XRP surpasses Bitcoin in market value in the future, it is more likely to come from the adoption rate and network growth of XRP itself, rather than a significant decline in Bitcoin's price. This statement subsequently sparked another round of discussion in the market about the valuation potential of XRP.
Calculated based on circulation, it is close to $24.
The report cites calculations by crypto analyst Zach Rector stating that if the total market value of XRP reaches approximately $1.5 trillion, which is close to Bitcoin's current market value, and assuming a circulation of around 62 billion coins, the unit price would be about $23.91. If we refer to Bitcoin's historical high market value of around $2.5 trillion, the price of XRP would approach $40.
Fully diluted price range lowered to $15 to $25
Rector Also, using a more conservative measurement method of full dilution, that is, based on a total supply of XRP 100 billion coins. Under this calculation, if the total market value is 1.5 trillion US dollars, the price of XRP would be approximately 15 US dollars; if the total market value rises to 2.5 trillion US dollars, the corresponding price would be about 25 US dollars.
He considers this range as a more conservative baseline scenario, that is, under the long-term growth logic described by Schwartz, the potential low valuation range that XRP could reach, rather than a more aggressive target value.
Higher goals depend on the continued expansion of the overall market.
The report also stated that Rector used the Anthropic model Claude to cross-check the above assumptions. The model indicated that if XRP truly manages to surpass Bitcoin in market value, the overall size of the cryptocurrency market is likely to be even larger at that time, and therefore, the valuation benchmark for Bitcoin itself may also continue to rise.
On this premise, $15 to $25 is more likely to be the lower limit in a conservative scenario, rather than the upper limit. A more optimistic projection is that if the market value of Bitcoin rises to $3 trillion to $5 trillion, and XRP expands accordingly, XRP has the potential to rise above $50 under a fully diluted scenario.
As of the time of this report, the trading price of XRP is around $1.30, which is still below the peak of this cycle at $3.66. Schwartz has not provided a timeline for when this scenario may occur. The article suggests that this is still within the realm of hypothetical discussion, but it also indicates that the management of Ripple has more clearly regarded "reaching a larger market value through internal growth" as a long-term possibility.
