Foreign media: On-chain analyst Willy Woo has discovered a rare anomaly in Bitcoin HODL Wave data. According to him, this type of signal has hardly appeared in the nearly 17.5 years of data, which may indicate that the buying at the bottom is not coming from a large number of retail investors, but rather from a small amount of capital acting gradually.
HODL Wave does not exhibit any common spikes.
HODL Wave divides the circulating supply based on the length of time coins are held. Newly purchased Bitcoins first enter the youngest age group and then move onto older age groups over time. Woo mentioned that in the past, every time there was a widespread bottom-fishing activity, there would be a clear peak in the younger age groups, but this time that did not happen.
Woo: It might be a single whale accumulating shares.
Woo believes that the buying orders near the bottom may come from a large investor, or perhaps a few entities buying in batches. He wrote on X that if many investors entered the market at the same time, there would usually be a clearer peak in buying activity, but this time the data does not fit this pattern.
- Woo believes that the buying side is more like 'completing the process slowly'.
- He also acknowledged that ETF, custody, and derivatives can all potentially affect the data.
- The structure of the Bitcoin market is significantly different from its early stages.
Prices and derivatives pressures remain.
The report also mentioned that Bitcoin once fell below $77,000 recently. Subsequently, the price rebounded to some extent, but the market is still affected by interest rate expectations and the expiration of derivatives. Coinbase Markets data shows that on Friday, approximately $2.51 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire, of which BTC constitutes the majority.
