JPMorgan Chase believes that Bitcoin still has room to strengthen further relative to gold, provided that investors begin to reduce the defensive hedging positions they have established around Bitcoin. The bank notes that, although the current capital flow seems to favor gold, the position structure in the Bitcoin market may provide additional support when sentiment improves.

Gold ETF repairs faster.

After the Federal Reserve's meeting in July, both gold and Bitcoin ETF saw a resumption of capital inflows, reflecting that some investors have returned to trading strategies aimed at hedging against currency devaluation.

However, JPMorgan Chase stated that the recovery speeds of these two types of assets are not consistent. Gold ETF has basically regained all the outflows from earlier 2026, while Bitcoin ETF has only recovered about half of the previous outflow volume so far.

Looking solely at the capital flow, gold has performed significantly better. However, this bank believes that if one only considers the net inflow data, they may overlook more critical position signals in the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin's defensive positions are even stronger.

JPMorgan Chase stated that the institution has maintained a relatively high allocation to both gold and Bitcoin, but Bitcoin investors are more cautious about downside risks.

This is also reflected in the options market. The report mentions that among the open contracts for BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT, the put/call ratio is higher than that of gold ETF GLD, indicating that Bitcoin investors have purchased more protection against a decline in price.

This view holds that such a more defensive position structure will suppress risk appetite in the short term, but if market sentiment improves and investors begin to reduce their protective positions, Bitcoin may receive more incremental support than gold.

• Gold ETF has recovered all the outflows for the year.
• Bitcoin ETF only recovers about half of the outflows
• IBIT Bear/bull position ratio is higher than GLD

JPMorgan Chase becomes more cautious within the year

JPMorgan was relatively optimistic about the crypto market at the beginning of 2026. In February, the bank's analyst team was still bullish on the performance of digital assets for the year and estimated that the production cost of Bitcoin was around $77,000, which was lower than the initial estimate of around $90,000 at the beginning of the year.

The team also reiterated at that time that, based on comparisons with the volatility of gold, the long-term valuation of Bitcoin could reach $266,000.

However, as 2026 progressed, JPMorgan's stance turned more cautious. In June of that year, the bank stated that Bitcoin had been operating below its estimated production costs for five consecutive months. At the same time, legislative developments surrounding the US Clarity Act were also seen by the bank as new uncertainties.

In this context, JPMorgan's current judgment is not simply bullish on Bitcoin, but rather emphasizes that if the defensive hedging in the ETF market begins to cool down, Bitcoin may have a greater potential for performance relative to gold.