Altcoin Buying Observation: XRP Faces a 20% Downside Risk, While AVAX and NEAR Show Strength
Bitcoin may not have finished falling yet, but various altcoins are already showing strong signs. The current chart pattern indicates that there could be a short and rapid decline in the coming days, which might present the best entry point within this current range.
Two scenarios for Bitcoin
Bitcoin charts show two possible paths:
- Base case: Fall back to the range of $79,000 to $81,000, followed by a strong rebound.
- Bullish scenario: If Bitcoin continues to rise, then the possibility of it falling to the mid-range of $74,000 would decrease, but a lower range just above $80,000 is still within consideration.
Regardless of the scenario, after this round of market consolidation, reaching $100,000 will become the next goal. Liquidity is accumulating around $86,000, which means that trading may be quite volatile in the next two to three days.
Altcoins with bullish patterns
- AVAX: We have already broken through and backtested at the weekly chart level, with the range of $16 to $20 coming into focus. There is still a possibility of a 20% pullback, so it is more suitable to enter positions in smaller lots over multiple tranches.
- NEAR: After a strong two-week rise, the mid to late $3 range is a key support area.
- ONDO: If it returns to the mid-range of $0.40 to the upper range of $0.50, it will provide a more attractive entry point.
- Ethereum: Performing the strongest among mainstream cryptocurrencies, the ETH proportion is on the rise, and the area around $2,425 is an important level.
- Zcash: It has already lost its four-hour trend; the range between $1,000 and $1,100 is a level that requires attention.
Filecoin, Compound, HBAR, Chainlink, and Curve are also on the observation list, among which Curve is currently making a breakthrough.
Varieties that are more likely to continue to fall in price
XRP has already lost its momentum and may fall another 15% to 20%; Immutable X also shows similar weakness.
90/10 rule
In a typical market correction, about 90% of altcoins will fall in value, while 10% will continue to rise. Those tokens that have already dropped to low levels in Bitcoin pairs and have been experiencing declines for several months may not have much further room to fall, which makes it reasonable to take small positions in blue-chip coins such as Chainlink now. The US Dollar Index is approaching resistance levels, and stocks and gold are also testing key levels.
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