The curse of Bitcoin's "Red September" may finally be coming to an end. According to the price tracking data from Coinglass, Bitcoin has risen by 7.33% this month. If there are no unexpected changes between today and tomorrow, this will be the best performance for September in the history of this tracking.
The gap is very narrow. The return rate in September 2024 was 7.29%, which means that with only one day left, the record was almost tied.
In the 13 years from 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin experienced declines in September on 8 occasions, including a consecutive 6-year decline from 2017 to 2022. Even taking this year's increase into account, the average return rate in September was still negative at -2.34%. According to CoinGlass data, this is the worst performance among all months.
However, the situation is changing. Bitcoin rose by 3.91% in September 2023, 7.29% in 2024, and 5.16% in 2025. If it can also close higher this year, it will be the fourth consecutive September with gains, setting a new record for the longest consecutive upward trend in this data.
The so-called "Red September" curse, if it can still be called that at all nowadays, is not unique to cryptocurrencies. Since 1945, the average performance of the S&P 500 index in September has also been negative, due to various factors such as holidays and tax harvesting.
September 2026 is not an easy month.
Bitcoin opened at around $78,500 at the beginning of this month, after having risen by 25% in August. However, by the middle of the month, the situation changed. On September 15th, the Senate's Clarity Act failed to pass in a vote to terminate the debate, with a result of 49 votes in favor and 50 against; spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $450.4 million on that day, marking its worst single-day performance since June.
A day later, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, marking the first rate hike since 2023. Risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks are more sensitive to changes in interest rates, as changes in the cost of "cheap money" affect risk-taking bets. After the rate hike, Bitcoin once fell to around $75,000.
Subsequently, Bitcoin continued to decline, even experiencing a small pullback, suggesting that September may once again end on a downward note.
However, the trend reversed later on. ETF attracted a total of approximately $2.98 billion in capital inflows over 7 consecutive trading days, with nearly $1 billion flowing in on September 21st alone, setting the best single-day performance since October 2025. Short sellers were squeezed, and over $800 million was liquidated within 24 hours. Bitcoin once soared to $87,354, reaching its highest level since late January.
What does the chart show?
Thereafter, Bitcoin lost about 4% of its gains. On Monday, as Brent crude oil once again broke above $100 after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin fell to $83,000.
From the daily chart perspective, this pullback is not very deep. Fibonacci retracement levels are used to measure how much of a previous trend has been given back, and in this case, the natural support and resistance levels fall within the range of $74,978 to $87,354.
There are still a majority of trend indicators. The Average Directional Index ( ADX ) is used to measure the strength of a trend, with a range of 0 to 100, but it does not indicate the direction; the current reading is 42.3, which is significantly higher than the threshold of 25 that traders use to confirm a strong trend. The Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) is a momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100, and a reading above 70 usually indicates overbought conditions; currently, it is at 61.2. The 50-day moving average is also above the 200-day moving average, which is a classic bullish pattern known as a "golden cross."
If it falls below $82,626, the next support range will be between $81,166 and $79,705, corresponding to 50% and 61.8% retracement levels.
The remaining time of this year
Even if there is a gain in September, it doesn't mean that 2026 will be a complete turnaround for investors. Bitcoin is still about 4.4% lower than its beginning-of-year trading price of around $87,497.
After a rise in September last year, it turned down in October with a decline of 3.69%, and then fell another 23% in the fourth quarter. The next meetings of the Federal Reserve this year are scheduled for October 27-28 and December 8-9.
To maintain the September record, Bitcoin needs to close above around $83,600 by the end of the month. In the same data table, the average return for October is 19.92%, but don't bet all your assets on this performance this year.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for reference only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
