Brief

Bitcoin is reporting $83,823 on the daily chart. Technical indicators show it to be in a strong upward trend, but the price is still stuck below $84,433 according to BTC.

Myriad Traders believe that the probability of Bitcoin reaching a high of $90,000 in October is 48%, while the probability of setting a new all-time high before 2027 is 7%.

On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75% to 4%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 5.289%; at the same time, on September 30, the spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $148.69 million.

At the beginning of October, it was also referred to as “Uptober” in the crypto community, as this period in history saw impressive market performance, marking the end of “Red September” – although September ultimately did not turn out to be that “red.” So, how will Bitcoin perform?

Bitcoin started October at $83,823, with a daily increase of 0.28%. In September prior to that, it was once on track to become the best-performing September in history, until changes occurred at the last moment.

With only one trading day left, Bitcoin rose by 7.33% for the month, slightly exceeding the record of 7.29% set in September 2024. In the end, a pullback resulted in the currency closing the month with a gain of 6.33%; although it still ended higher, it broke the "red September" curse, but it no longer qualifies as the best performance in history.

Now it's the turn of what's known in the crypto market as “Uptober”. According to CoinGlass, since 2013, October has brought an average return of 19.92% and a median return of 14.71% for crypto investors.

However, last year this scenario was not repeated. In October 2025, there was a decline of 3.69%, which was only the third "red October" since 2013. So what will happen this year? The macroeconomic environment provides some context.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, raising the interest rate range to 3.75% to 4%. This was the first rate hike since July 2023, and the voting results were unanimous. Rising interest rates often put pressure on assets such as Bitcoin, as "cheap money" becomes scarce, and investments typically shift towards safer options, such as U.S. Treasury bonds.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that inflation is “still on the high side,” while the Fed’s median forecast indicates that there will be another 25 basis point interest rate hike this year. The next decision will be announced on October 28th.

Bond yields have also reflected this signal. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 5.289% at the end of September, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 5.632%, both hitting 52-week highs. Since Bitcoin does not generate earnings, traders often view rising U.S. Treasury bond yields as direct competition.

The stock market also did not cheer at the interest rate hikes. As yields climbed, both the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index recorded monthly declines in September. In August, PCE inflation was indeed lower than expected, at 3.4% annually, down from the anticipated 3.7%; core PCE inflation was 3.0%, also below the expected 3.3%.

Meanwhile, as of September 29th, Bitcoin ETF has seen approximately $3.08 billion in capital inflows for nine consecutive days. According to the Bitcoin ETF tracker from Decrypt, this upward trend came to an end on September 30th, with a net outflow of $148.69 million that day. The total net assets exceed $101 billion, although data from different tracking sources may differ by several billion dollars.

In the week of September 21st, there was a net inflow of approximately $2.4 billion, including a single-day inflow of $999 million. As of now, this week's net outflow amounts to $51.42 million.

On the prediction market Myriad created by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, traders are betting that the probability of Bitcoin reaching a high of $85,000 is 90%; currently, the safest bet seems to be that BTC will remain sideways. According to the odds of Myriad, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $87,500 is currently 70%.

In another market, traders believe that the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before 2027 is only 7%. This means that it would need to rise by about 50% from its current level, but this is currently considered highly unlikely.

Bitcoin Price: Strong Trend, but Rising Momentum Has Stalled

The daily candlestick chart opened today at $83,588.27, with the intraday range fluctuating between $83,134.08 and $84,360.88. The current price is $83,823.14, which falls within the range after a rebound from $74,977.57 and a decline from the high point of $87,354.33.

The Exponential Moving Average ( EMA ) assigns a higher weight to recent prices. The 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA, which indicates an upward short-term trend.

The Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) is used to measure the buying momentum between 0 and 100. The current reading is 61.8, indicating a bullish bias, but it has not yet reached the 70 level that usually triggers profit-taking. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator indicator is in a “closed” state, which means that the volatility compression has been released; meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are expanding. The Bollinger Bands are used to measure the degree to which prices deviate from the average.

In terms of potential catalysts this month, the schedule is quite busy. The employment report for September will be released on October 2nd, the minutes of the FOMC meeting will be published on October 7th, the CPI data will be disclosed on October 14th, and the Federal Reserve's decision will come out on October 28th. The trading session for Myriad in October will close at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on October 31st.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for reference only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.