Israeli voters will head to polling stations on Tuesday to participate in general elections, the impact of which has extended beyond the country's borders.

This is the first general election held in Israel since Hamas launched its attack on October 7, 2023. That attack resulted in about 1,200 deaths and over 250 people being kidnapped. The Palestinian Ministry of Health stated that the subsequent military operations carried out by Israel in Gaza have caused more than 74,500 deaths. This is also the first election to take place since the United States and Israel began joint operations against Iran in February.

How do Israeli general elections work?

In Israel, voters cast their ballots for political parties rather than directly electing a prime minister. The 120 seats in the parliament are allocated according to a proportional representation system. Political parties must win at least 3.25% of the national vote in order to be represented in parliament.

Since few political parties are able to win a majority of seats on their own, they usually form coalition governments. The president will invite a member of parliament – typically the one most likely to assemble a majority of 61 seats – to form the cabinet. If multiple attempts fail, new elections may be held.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the right-wing Likud party, returned to power at the end of 2022. His coalition included far-right and ultra-orthodox political parties. Since then, this coalition has been under pressure due to disagreements over the Gaza ceasefire and the issue of conscription for ultra-orthodox men.

The latest polls show that neither Netanyahu's camp nor the main opposition camp led by Gadi Eizenkot, a former senior military officer from the center-of-the-road faction, can achieve the 61 seats required to govern, which means that smaller parties may become the decisive force.

Arab political parties are also among those competing in the elections, but most of the major Jewish political parties have ruled out the possibility of forming alliances with them. Over 20% of Israel's population is Arab, yet Arab political parties rarely join ruling coalitions.

War-time Priorities

This upcoming vote is essentially a referendum on Netanyahu. László Csicimán, an expert on Middle Eastern issues at the University of Szeged in Budapest, Hungary, stated that the Hamas attacks have "changed Israeli society."

He said about CNBC: "Since October 7, 2023, Israel has been in a state of war, and the so-called 'Seven Fronts War' initiated by Netanyahu has undoubtedly worn down Israeli society. The party that can better convince voters that it can protect the public is more likely to win. Other election issues include mandatory military service, which is particularly sensitive for religious Jewish parties and the Haredi community."

For most Jews, Druzes, and Circassians over the age of 18, military service is mandatory, while most other Arab Israelis are exempt from it. The issue of conscription for ultra-orthodox men remains a significant legal and political controversy.

Qiqiman said that the economic costs brought about by war are also an important issue.

"Due to war and high military expenditures, economic issues also dominate political campaigns," he told CNBC, noting that Israel currently spends about 8% of its gross domestic product on military spending. "In addition, almost every family has a soldier or reservist who is conscripted into the military and leaves their jobs for several months."

Political scientist Daniel Shatz, who has served as a visiting scholar at Harvard, Stanford, and Georgetown, stated that defense and security are also at the core of elections.

In his email to CNBC, he stated: "For Israel, the stakes include restoring public confidence in the government, as well as determining how military power can be transformed into lasting security. For its neighboring countries and international partners, the question is whether the next government will be able to turn the gains on the battlefield into viable political arrangements."

Shatz stated that while Netanyahu's supporters view the current prime minister as an "experienced leader facing severe threats," critics believe he has made mistakes in preparation, accountability, and strategic direction.

In September, an excerpt published by Israel's Haaretz newspaper claimed that Netanyahu had been warned about a week before the attack on October 7th that Hamas was planning to launch a large-scale offensive. Netanyahu described these claims as "absolute lies," and it has been reported that he has filed a defamation lawsuit against the newspaper.

However, Shatz stated to CNBC that dissatisfaction with Netanyahu should not be simply equated with support for the left wing.

"Some voters want a different style of leadership because they believe it will provide better security," he said.

He added that the replacement of the prime minister and the ruling coalition is also unlikely to lead to dramatic changes in Israel's positions on issues such as the establishment of a Palestinian state, Iran, and other foreign policy matters.

Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party's election platform promises "no compromise on security," while also pledging to maintain a free economy and financial markets, and to promote "building Israel into a regional and technological powerhouse."

Eisenkott's Yashar party stated its hope to build Israel into a "democratic, strong, progressive, and secure" nation, with a focus also on national security, including a proposal to compel both the ultra-orthodox and Arab communities to serve in the military.

Palestine, Iran, and International Relations

Eurasia Group Senior analyst Farzan Sabate told CNBC that the main camps competing for power are 'quite hawkish' on security issues, and their policies regarding key topics such as dealing with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon are also generally similar.

But he added that a new coalition government, mainly composed of the anti-Netanyahu camp, "might be more inclined to re-examine Israel's strategy towards Tehran" before taking any major escalatory actions.

It is reported that the United States and Israel have made plans for a possible new round of strikes against Iran after the mid-term elections on November 3, while the Iranian Army Chief of Staff stated that Iran is prepared to deal with "asymmetric warfare."

Sabet also added that the anti-Netanyahu camp may be 'more moderate' on certain issues, such as taking military action in Gaza, especially when doing so would help improve relations with the United States, enhance Israel's international status, and still meet the country's basic security needs.

He said that a government mainly composed of the anti-Netanyahu camp might take fewer actions on the West Bank, curb the violence perpetrated by local settlers against Palestinians, and avoid annexing Palestinian land.

The West Bank of Jordan is Palestinian territory west of the Jordan River, and Israeli settlements have been expanding there for decades. In recent years, the violence and forced evictions of Palestinians by settlers have been condemned by members of Congress from the United States and other countries.

But Sabat said about CNBC: "Although in the latest Israeli polls, the opposition to Netanyahu has a slight advantage, this will be a closely contested race with a variety of possible outcomes."