Investors who are feeling anxious are not just those from "New Cloud" companies and ultra-large-scale cloud service providers.
Option data shows that on Monday afternoon, before Palantir and Apple announced their financial reports, bearish trades increased significantly. The trends of these two stocks were different from those of the broader AI market – especially for Apple, whose trend was almost the opposite of the Nasdaq 100 index – but this did not stop speculators from betting that their stock prices would reverse after the financial reports were released.
According to Cboe LiveVol data, as of Monday noon, there were a total of 620,000 options trades involving Apple, of which 385,000 were put options; at least 113,000 of these put options were likely newly opened by buyers, while only 64,000 were call options purchased. Nations Indexes data shows that during the same period, the price of Apple put options rose to the 86th percentile of the past year, whereas call option prices were only at the 51st percentile.
ThinkOrSwim data shows that Apple's stock price has risen by 25% this year, and its current correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index is -0.65. According to LiveVol data, the option market currently implies a slightly lower volatility for Apple's stock price of around 4%, whereas in the past two years, the average volatility after the company's financial reports was 2.5%.
According to the data from Nations Indexes, the option flow for Palantir is also bearish. Calculated by trading volume, there are more put options than call options, and the price of put options is at the 97th percentile over the past year. Call options are not cheap either, but to a lesser extent, at the 76th percentile.
Traders should be prepared for significant fluctuations in Palantir: Market makers' pricing indicates that the implied volatility is 11.5%, which is higher than the average of 10% over the past two years. The stock rose nearly 30% after the release of its last financial report, but then saw a decline following the May financial report.
On Monday, the largest transaction was someone opening a new position to buy approximately 750 put options with a intrinsic value of $250, an exercise price of $250, and expiration in mid-February, for a total amount of $5.1 million.












