The Trump meme coin fell 30% in a week to a record low, colliding with midterm election losses. Can it hold on? The answer leans pessimistic: it will be very difficult.
In the first week of November, the TRUMP coin fell from around $1.71 at the start of the week all the way to a record low of $1.116, a weekly decline of over 30%, evaporating about 99% from its peak of $73.43 in early 2025. Over the same period, the global crypto market fell only about 1.2%, and Bitcoin even briefly rose above $80,000 after the election results were announced. When a token's entire narrative is anchored to one person's political momentum, a midterm election loss directly pierces its pricing foundation.
Table: Latest Key Data on the Trump Coin
| Data Dimension | Latest Value |
|---|---|
| Latest Price | Approx. $1.148 |
| Circulating Market Cap | Approx. $323 Million |
| 24-Hour Trading Volume | Approx. $341 Million |
| Circulating Supply | Approx. 282 Million |
| Holder Addresses | Approx. 647,000 |
| Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) | Approx. $1.21–$1.25 Billion |
| 7-Day / 30-Day / YTD Decline | 7-day: approx. -28.3%; 1-month: approx. -39.2%; YTD: approx. -76.1% |
| Drawdown From All-Time High | Down approx. 98.4%–98.5% |
| Upcoming Unlock Schedule | Approx. 28.69–28.90 Million tokens unlocking on November 18, 2026 |
Note: The above content is compiled and summarized by CoinMeta based on public market data. Please refer to actual data if there are any fluctuations.
What Is $TRUMP?
$TRUMP is an official political meme coin issued on the Solana blockchain on January 17, 2025. Donald Trump directly confirmed its "official status" by posting the contract address through his Truth Social and X accounts, making it the only meme coin with Trump's personal formal endorsement. The total supply is fixed at 1 billion tokens, with only about 200 million entering public circulation at launch. The remaining 80% is held by Trump-family-affiliated entities CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, gradually unlocking under a multi-year linear schedule.
Image: Trump Coin 2025 Launch
The core driver of the Trump coin's price comes from market pricing of Trump's political momentum, as well as ecosystem narratives built around his personal brand, such as holders participating in exclusive events and integration with the Truth Predict platform.
$TRUMP's Price Trajectory Since Listing
The table below summarizes the key price milestones and current status of $TRUMP since listing:
| Time Node | Price / Data |
|---|---|
| January 17, 2025 | Opening price: $0.1824 |
| January 2025 | $73.43–$75.37 |
| Full-Year 2025 Close | $4.81 |
| August 2026 | Approx. $1.37 |
| November 3–5 | $1.116 |
| November 9 | Approx. $1.167 |
In our view, what is most worth analyzing in this price table is the way it fell:
The Trump coin went from $0.18 to $73 in under 72 hours;It went from $73 back to around $1 in less than two years;The current price of about $1.17 corresponds to a circulating market cap of just over $300 million, but the team still holds about 71.8% of the tokens and has already cashed out $249 million over the past 8 months at an average price of $3.04. The current price is not "already bottomed out," but a mid-way price where "what should be sold has not been fully sold, and the political halo has already faded."
Image: Trump Coin Monthly Returns
Why Did the Trump Coin Fall 30% in a Week?
Midterm Election Losses
What is the main reason the Trump meme coin fell to a new low, down 30% in a week? The answer is: midterm election losses.
In our view, the TRUMP coin has never been a technical product since its birth; its support is Trump's personal political influence and expectations of regulatory leniency.
In the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats swept both the Senate and the House. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which the industry had high hopes for, had already stalled.When Trump held executive power, tokens tied to him enjoyed a narrative premium; when the political landscape split and regulation turned from tailwind to headwind, the same binding relationship became a discount.Currently, 989,000 wallets holding TRUMP are collectively bearing about $3.8 billion in unrealized losses, fully exposed when the political narrative recedes. The answer given by this "poll" of the midterm elections is not friendly to the TRUMP coin.
Unlock Overhang
Our analysis suggests that a more persistent pressure than the election loss comes from the token distribution structure itself.
TRUMP has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with only about 200 million initially in circulation. 800 million are locked in Trump-affiliated entities such as CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight, unlocking linearly over a three-year cycle.
Image: Trump Coin Unlock Schedule
As of now, insiders still control about 74% of the circulating supply; the team has transferred about 81.87 million TRUMP to exchanges over the past 8 months, cashing out $249 million at an average price of about $3.04, while the current price is only about one-third of that average. Additionally, on November 18, 2026, about 27.12 million to 28.69 million insider tokens will unlock, roughly 9.6% of circulating supply, making it the largest unlock event by dollar value in the Solana ecosystem that month.
Structural Crushing on the Supply Side
During the crash week, TRUMP's trading volume surged 245% while the price moved lower, and the perpetual contract funding rate was -0.0522%. Volume expanded while the price fell. In our view, this combination does not indicate that someone is bottom-fishing, but that those holding tokens are rushing to sell and exit.
Look at another set of numbers: the team has already cashed out $249 million and still holds 71.8% of tokens that have not been released. This creates a simple arithmetic problem: as long as the price shows any meaningful rebound, those unsold insider chips will take the opportunity to dump, and the higher the rebound, the greater the selling pressure.
Meme Coin Cooldown Plus Regulatory Reset: TRUMP Is Not an Isolated Case
If we broaden our perspective, TRUMP's predicament is not an isolated case.
Its sister token MELANIA fell to about $0.065 over the same period, evaporating 99.5% from its peak;WLFI is down about 86% from its all-time high;
Image: Trump Coin Latest Price
Additionally, the share of meme coin trading volume in total Solana trading volume has dropped from over 50% at the end of 2024 to 15%-20% in Q2 2026. In our view, the entire template that drove TRUMP's surge in 2025—"political figure + meme + on-chain speculation"—is contracting. After Democrats took control of Congress, the SEC's tendency to classify crypto assets as securities may strengthen, and meme coins are precisely the category of assets with the weakest defense basis in regulatory classification.
Conclusion: Can the Trump Coin Hold On?
The Trump meme coin fell to a new low, down 30% in a week, colliding with midterm election losses. Can it hold on? Looking only at "how much it has fallen" is not enough to answer. In our view, what truly determines whether the TRUMP meme coin can hold on are three things:
Whether the supply pipeline narrows, whether the political narrative recovers, and whether the regulatory headwind turns.
Currently, none of the three conditions has improved: the team still controls about 74% of circulating supply, and about 28.69 million insider tokens will unlock on November 18; after Democrats took control of Congress, scrutiny of the Trump family's crypto interests has escalated from verbal threats to a real-power agenda; and the overall liquidity of the meme coin sector is also systematically contracting.The next round of pricing for the TRUMP coin requires not a reversal of election results, but a value logic that no longer depends on election results. That logic has not yet appeared.
FAQ
Q1: Why can midterm elections affect the coin price?
Because the narrative is anchored to political momentum. The price of $TRUMP is essentially a pricing of Trump's political influence. After Democrats swept both chambers, regulation turned into a headwind, the political premium was systematically withdrawn, and the coin price was repriced accordingly.
Q2: Is there still a chance for the TRUMP coin to rebound?
In the short term, it is possible. A short-covering bounce after an oversold drop or a pulse driven by political events is not uncommon. But a sustained rebound requires at least one of supply structure, regulatory direction, or narrative foundation to materially improve, and currently none of the three shows a turning signal.
Disclaimer: Readers are strictly advised to comply with local laws and regulations. This article is compiled based on public market data for reference and educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice. Follow CoinMeta for the latest updates.
