When liquidity flows back into cryptocurrencies, we'll print money again. Right now, liquidity is flowing out of cryptocurrencies while the stock market is performing well, all thanks to Trump.
Issuing a token is now an achievement, haha. I don't know if we can print money again once liquidity flows back into cryptocurrencies, because the landscape for low-market-cap tokens has changed; it's no longer 2023 or 2024.
For SOL/Robinhood/BASE/BNB and many more upcoming blockchains, I think the number of buyers or active on-chain wallet users is far less than the number of newly issued tokens.
Hopefully, cryptocurrencies will make a comeback.
In the past two years, during the so-called "altcoin supercycle," 99% of cryptocurrency investors lost money, while the stock market soared.
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Biupa
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Market Outlook
August is unlikely to see the major drop many are imagining.
Currently, some believe that August will see a major drop, specifically $BTC breaking below this range (58500) and continuing downwards. I currently believe it's hard to imagine such a drop occurring.
Firstly, using a clinging to outdated theories, we previously observed a four-year cycle bottom on October 5th, 2026 (refer to the pinned tweet "Wolong Yance"). If the four-year cycle bottom theory holds true, we can deduce that the final drop will not begin earlier than T-30 at the four-year cycle bottom (see 2018/2022).
Therefore, if the four-year cycle bottom theory holds true, the final drop will not begin earlier than September 5th; this means August is relatively safe.
Another viewpoint in the market is that the final drop will not occur at all; if this view is correct, then we are even less likely to see a major drop in August.
What I need to be wary of is the lack of a strong rebound throughout August; for example, oscillation between 61-65, making it difficult to retest 67300 and above. If this happens, the probability of a final decline starting in September is very high.
Regarding stocks, I also believe the rebound is not over. At least for next week, I think the rebound momentum will continue. The reasons are Trump's TACO, improved liquidity, and the significant bottoming events last Thursday, such as the Situational Awareness liquidation. In the best-case scenario, the S&P 500 could reach a new high again (currently less than 2% away).
Therefore, I think even if Bitcoin falls to around 61,000 next week (see Figure 2), there's no need to panic; rather, it's an opportunity to go long. However, the overall strategy for August is to retreat on rallies, fighting and retreating gradually, and everyone should remain out of the market by the start of September.
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Mario Nawfal
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump was just hours away from striking Iran's energy infrastructure, but a deal may have pulled the world back from the brink.
Pravin Sani, one of India's most respected defense analysts, analyzed what happened last night with me:
Just hours after Qatar brokered a compromise on the Strait of Hormuz, Trump issued a "ready" statement. The deal allows ships to enter the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian territorial waters and exit through Omani waters.
This arrangement allows Iran to effectively control ships entering and leaving the strait without completely blocking it.
As Sani predicted, Iran denied the reports:
"The Iranians always deny good news before an agreement is signed. They don't want to appease the markets; they want to continue putting pressure on Trump."
But whatever the agreement, the US lacks sufficient military strength. Israel's integrated air defense system already has a limited number of destroyers, and its missiles and interceptors are severely worn out.
So, what does Iran actually want?
It's not just about the cost of the Strait of Hormuz, but about the complete withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East. This is precisely what Article 4 of the Memorandum of Understanding stipulates: withdrawal within 30 days of a final agreement.
"Trump should stop making public threats and instead engage in serious closed-door negotiations; that's the only way to find a solution."
An agreement is one step closer than yesterday, but still further away than anyone anticipated…
Thanks to @PravinSawhney for participating in the discussion again.
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Peter Schiff
フォロー
Trump's approval rating is a record low of 33%, the lowest among all re-elected presidents since 1940, second only to Nixon's approval rating on the eve of his humiliating resignation. This is inconsistent with the current economic prosperity and instead reflects the hardship faced by the American people.
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Jason Huang
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Here is my summary and outlook on the current market:
August could be a solid month. Regardless of inflation data, the Fed hasn't actually raised rates, and we'll be in a market vacuum before the next FOMC meeting in September. As long as there are no real expectations of rate hikes during this period, there's room for the market to rise.
That said, I think there will be some divergence in the market.
1. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Sector: Following the recent sharp sell-off, expectations are adjusting as the market reassesses AI pricing and valuations. We may see more volatility in this sector, with the market reacting very sharply to news (positive news driving stock prices up, negative news triggering stock prices to plummet). Currently, capital is rewarding companies that are cutting AI spending, so funds are temporarily flowing out of the AI sector.
2. Cryptocurrencies: I am currently very bullish on cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin native sector (bitcoin:native) is clearly bottoming out, regardless of whether there will be a broader market correction or a final period of consolidation. Given the recent consolidation, we've been waiting for a breakout direction, and the overall outlook for August is very optimistic. This momentum could stem from a rise in Bitcoin prices, new funds flowing into $MSTR to continue accumulating Bitcoin, or the passage of the Clarity Act with better-than-expected results. Any catalyst would have a significant impact on the entire sector.
3. Commodities: As we have consistently judged, the Middle East conflict is unlikely to subside. Therefore, even if oil prices fluctuate in response to @realDonaldTrump's tweets, they are likely to maintain a steady upward trend. Regardless of Trump's attempts to control market expectations, the Strait of Hormuz will not open, and oil prices are bound to rise.
Finally, let's talk about value stocks. Perhaps this includes all Chinese-related American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). $COLA.NE recently led the market to new all-time highs. Many Chinese value stocks are currently at extremely low levels (99th percentile), many of which are actually quite profitable and even pay dividends. In any case, low prices are key, so I believe value stocks have a great opportunity to perform well in the future. For reference, value stocks experienced a significant surge after the bursting of the bubble in 2000.
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Mario Nawfal
フォロー
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Reports indicate that under immense pressure from Gulf states, Trump has suspended the latest airstrikes against Iran and is instead seeking negotiations.
This sudden announcement occurred overnight, with Trump stating that he had canceled the airstrikes, at least for now.
Mediators appear to have made progress on plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and have urged Trump to suspend the airstrikes in order to reach a potential agreement.
However, we all know this has happened several times before: first a threat of devastating strikes, then a claim that an agreement is "within reach."
So, is this "real"? Or is the president just playing hard to get again?
The proposal is clearly aimed at establishing a new traffic pattern for ships transiting the strait, but whether Iran will ultimately agree remains unclear…
Iran still wants to charge transit fees or tolls, which the United States strongly opposes.
Reportedly, just hours before Trump announced a temporary halt to the proposal, he spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who urged both sides to engage in dialogue.
As the war continues, the Gulf states are clearly increasingly frustrated, unsure of the true nature of America's strategy.
It seems all sides are deeply frustrated…
Source: The Wall Street Journal / Author: Michael
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Andrew Tate
フォロー
Respect due process and wait for the media frenzy and behind-the-scenes manipulation to end.
You'll find that Tate has always been innocent.
The greatest figures in history have all suffered from these kinds of legal battles and defamation.
Nelson Mandela
Malcolm X
Donald Trump
I welcome it all with open arms.
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Mario Nawfal
フォロー
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump was just hours away from striking Iran's energy infrastructure, but a deal may have pulled the world back from the brink.
Pravin Sani, one of India's most respected defense analysts, analyzed what happened last night with me:
Just hours after Qatar brokered a compromise on the Strait of Hormuz, Trump issued a "ready" statement. The deal allows ships to enter the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian territorial waters and exit through Omani waters.
This arrangement allows Iran to effectively control ships entering and leaving the strait without completely blocking it.
As Sani predicted, Iran denied the reports:
"The Iranians always deny good news before an agreement is signed. They don't want to appease the markets; they want to continue putting pressure on Trump."
But whatever the agreement, the US lacks sufficient military strength. Israel's integrated air defense system already has a limited number of destroyers, and its missiles and interceptors are severely worn out.
So, what does Iran actually want?
It's not just about the cost of the Strait of Hormuz, but about the complete withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East. This is precisely what Article 4 of the Memorandum of Understanding stipulates: withdrawal within 30 days of a final agreement.
"Trump should stop making public threats and instead engage in serious closed-door negotiations; that's the only way to find a solution."
An agreement is one step closer than yesterday, but still further away than anyone anticipated…
Thanks to @PravinSawhney for participating in the discussion again.
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比特币总裁
フォロー
If the Senate does not vote on the Clarity Act within the next five days and submit it to President Trump for signature, it will enter its summer recess around August 7th, meaning it might not pass until September, December, or next year.
Currently, the Clarity Act is stalled due to issues such as ethical provisions and stablecoin yields. The Senate is prioritizing the nomination process and matters related to Russian sanctions.
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Mario Nawfal
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To give you an idea of how close we are to global war:
- Trump wants Syria to fight Hezbollah in Lebanon
- Reports suggest Ukraine may assist the US in blocking Iran
- Rumors circulate that Saudi Arabia will invade Yemen to seize control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from the Houthis
- Two ships were attacked in Egypt. Iran launched a preemptive strike in the Gulf region. The US is preparing for a possible resurgence of war
- China and Russia strongly support Iran
- The war in Ukraine escalates, and Russia warns of potential attacks on NATO
- China and Japan demonstrate strength in the South China Sea and East China Sea
- North Korea hopes to build and deploy nuclear-powered submarines