On September 9, Bitcoin fell below $79,000 for the first time, showing a significant decline from the level above $81,000 on September 4. Market data indicates that short-term momentum is slowing down, and the leveraged positions concentrated around $78,000 and $80,000 could lead to more amplified fluctuations in the coming market trend.
From a daily perspective, BTC recently reported a price of around $78,900, and during the session it dipped to $78,455 before returning to the vicinity of $79,000. Previously, Bitcoin briefly broke through $82,000 but failed to maintain that gain, and subsequently fell for several consecutive days.
Despite the weakening in the short term, the longer-term trend has not yet been disrupted. BTC is still slightly above the 10-day moving average of $78,732, and the 20-day moving average is around $70,242. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are roughly distributed in the range of $66,700 to $70,000, indicating that the medium-term recovery structure is still in place.
4-hour trend weakening
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $79,188, which has now become a short-term resistance level. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands is around $80,292, while the lower band is around $78,084. Prices have slid towards the lower half of the range.
If it continues to fall below the lower track, the intraday lows of $78,450 and the round figure of $78,000 will be put to the test. If one wishes to retest the upper range, buyers will first need to regain the level of $79,200.
At the same time, the ADX on the 4-hour chart is 18.31, indicating that the short-term trend is relatively weak. This usually means that the market is temporarily lacking a clear one-way direction and is more likely to remain volatile before waiting for a new breakthrough.
78,000 and 80,000 US dollars are being aggregated to liquidate positions.
The 24-hour clearing heat map of CoinGlass shows that there is a considerable amount of liquidity accumulated on both the upper and lower sides of the current Bitcoin price. The nearest dense area above is between $79,200 and $80,000. If the price re-enters this range, it could trigger some short positions to be closed, pushing BTC to test $80,300 again.
Higher levels of liquidity are also distributed at $80,500, as well as in the range of $81,500 to $82,000. Below that, liquidity is concentrated around $78,000 and $77,000 respectively, with the clearing zone around $77,000 being more pronounced.
This means that once the level of $78,000 is breached, the market may trigger long liquidations, driving prices down further to $77,000. If that level also cannot be stabilized, $76,300 will become the next area worth watching.
Analysts focus on the support level of $76,000
Some analysts pointed out that while the price of Bitcoin reached a new high, the highs for RSI are moving lower, and there are already signs of bearish divergence in the short term. This type of pattern usually indicates that the upward momentum is weakening, but it does not necessarily mean that the trend has reversed.
According to this judgment, if the price subsequently falls below the support level around $76,000, the bearish pattern will be further confirmed; if it rises back above $84,000, the aforementioned bearish outlook will significantly weaken.
Judging from the current trend, there are roughly three short-term scenarios in the market: if the price holds above $78,000, BTC may continue to remain within the current range; if it reclaims above $79,200, the area between $80,000 and $80,300 will once again become the target; however, if the price continuously falls below $78,000 on the daily or 4-hour time frames, it is more likely to decline towards $77,000 or even $76,000, passing through the region with high liquidation activity.
U.S. Treasury yields and Fed policy expectations remain important external factors affecting risky assets. If interest rate expectations change again, the currently crowded derivative positions in Bitcoin could amplify market volatility.
