Due to the US military escort facilitating transportation and the diversion of pipelines, crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have largely returned to normal levels before the Iran war.

Data released on Wednesday by Kpler showed that as of Monday, the seven-day average for crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz was 13.5 million barrels per day, which is comparable to the pre-war baseline level.

Kpler, the head of commodity research, stated that Iran has always claimed control over the Strait of Hormuz during the war and has announced multiple times its closure. However, as a large volume of cargo continues to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran's influence is waning.

Crude oil transportation in the Middle East region, including the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, sometimes even exceeds pre-war levels. Kpler data shows that as of Monday, the seven-day average in this region reached 19.5 million barrels per day, which is higher than the pre-war benchmark of about 17 million barrels per day.

However, JPMorgan, the head of global commodities strategy at Natasha Kaneva, stated that the recovery is not balanced. She said, "The crude oil market has largely returned to normal, even though the supply of refined products is still limited."

The world is facing a global fuel crisis due to limited supplies from the Middle East, while Ukraine continues to strike Russian refineries. Kpler data shows that as of Monday, the seven-day average of refined oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz was only 677,000 barrels per day, compared to 3.6 million barrels before the war.

The seven-day average of the total transportation volume of crude oil and refined products is 14.2 million barrels per day, which is about 80% of the pre-war baseline of around 17 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz.

The global fuel supply gap has pushed diesel prices in the United States to record highs and poses a significant threat to economic health. U.S. President Donald Trump is considering imposing an export ban in response to political pressure from Republican lawmakers ahead of the midterms.

Bank of America Global Commodity Director Francisco Blanch said in an interview with CNBC's Squawk on the Street on September 8th: "The biggest pain point is the diesel market."

Iran's exports plummet

Meanwhile, data from Kpler shows that Iran's crude oil exports have significantly declined amid the U.S. Navy's blockade of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Trump is attempting to force Iran to reach an agreement by cutting off Tehran's main source of income, and the United States has also intensified its sanctions efforts.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday that Iran will complete its last batch of crude oil deliveries to China in about two weeks, and by then they "will have nothing left to exchange for anything."

RBC Capital Markets, the head of global commodities strategy, said in an interview with CNBC's Power Lunch on September 25: 'Some people in Washington think that we should just let the sanctions take their effect – we can wait for Iran to collapse.'

However, Rapidan Energy CEO and former CIA official Scott Modell stated on Monday in an interview with CNBC's Squawk on The Street that there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that economic pressure from the United States will fundamentally change Iran's stance.

Last week, Iran proposed that if the United States reinstated the failed memorandum of understanding from June, it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Under that memorandum, the United States made significant concessions, agreeing to lift the blockade and allowing Iran to negotiate with Oman regarding the future management of the Strait of Hormuz.

But this memorandum fell apart in the summer, and subsequently conflicts resurfaced. An anonymous U.S. official told The Wall Street Journal that Trump has rejected Iran's latest proposals and told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the midterms.

How do the Gulf regions adjust?

Although export levels have approached pre-war levels, the security situation within the strait has not yet returned to normal. Iran continues to attack oil tankers, and sometimes these attacks result in fatal consequences.

In response, Kpler stated that more than 70% of the crude oil that crossed the Strait of Hormuz in August was transloaded onto other tankers in the waters near the United Arab Emirates or Oman. The receiving tankers first transported the crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, and then it was loaded onto another tanker for shipment to Asia.

This interconnection system is protected by the US military, which can reduce the risk of attacks from Iran. However, it is still unclear how long this system will be able to remain in operation due to its reliance on US military protection.

Croft means: 'This is very expensive, and it represents a huge military commitment for the United States.'

She also said that the Gulf countries do not believe that this "temporary arrangement" made up of ship-to-ship transshipment and military escort can replace the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Pipelines operated by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also undertake a large portion of the transportation tasks. Kpler states that currently, about 40% of Gulf crude oil is transported through these pipelines, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, whereas before the war, this proportion was around 17%.

But pipelines are also vulnerable to attacks. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia closed the East-West Pipeline after it was damaged in a drone attack launched from Iraq. With the pipeline resuming operation, the loading capacity at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port, has increased again.

During the period of pipeline downtime, due to the interconnection system protected by the US military, Saudi Arabia was able to redirect its exports back through the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil flows remained resilient.

However, as diplomacy reaches a stalemate, there is still a possibility that regional oil supplies could be interrupted again in the future, and the risk of new conflicts is on the rise.

The Modell of Rapidan said, "I think the president will escalate the situation after the midterms, and we've been hearing that the Iranians will escalate before the midterms. The direction in which things are developing is towards escalation."