After soaring to decades-high levels, U.S. Treasury yields are likely to gradually cool down. This judgment was made by David Zervos, a senior Wall Street figure who recently held a senior position at the U.S. Treasury Department.
"By any historical standard, these actual yields are truly, truly high, so I think there is still some room for a decline in the future," said Zervos, who serves as an advisor to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, on Thursday during the CNBC program " Power Lunch ".
Comments under Zervos appear after the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds recently rose to 24-year highs. As markets expect central banks around the world to raise interest rates, and as companies continue to borrow to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence, yields in the global bond market have continued to rise recently.
As borrowing costs rise and align with the yield of government bonds, demand for popular consumer loans, such as mortgages, is declining.
Zervos indicates that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have already responded to the rise in short-term interest rates, but there has not been much change in long-term interest rates and inflation expectations.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years last month. Central bank officials stated this week that there may be more rate hikes before the end of this year.
According to the FedWatch tool of CME, federal funds futures traders expect that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising borrowing costs again at its December meeting exceeds 82%.
Zervos said that part of the reason for the pressure on global real interest rates also comes from increased spending by companies on artificial intelligence. He refers to this technology as “SI”, which is an abbreviation for “super intelligence” – a term advocated by U.S. President Donald Trump at a time when opposition to data centers in that region is growing louder.
However, this individual who has worked at Jefferies and the Federal Reserve stated that these investments are a positive sign for the overall economy, and the impact on yields is merely a short-term issue.
He said that bond yields may fall back after the energy shock triggered by the war between the United States and Iran is resolved. The price of Brent crude oil, which serves as a global benchmark for crude oil, has risen by about 38% since the conflict began until Wednesday.
"We can only tolerate this situation for a short period of time," said Zervos.
Zervos indicates that rising interest rates 'are not a phenomenon unique to the United States,' and lists countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Japan that have also experienced similar trends.
"In this period of change, the United States has performed quite well compared to many other developed markets and smaller developed markets," said Zervos. "This is not a problem unique to the United States."
