Bill Ackman, CEO of Pantheon Square Capital ( Pershing Square ), believes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Iran war, and persistently high inflation and interest rates are suppressing what should be a stronger market environment. However, as geopolitical risks ease and energy prices decline, he expects the market outlook to improve significantly, stating that "2027 will be an amazing year."
On Thursday, in an interview with CNN Business ( CNBC ), Ackman stated that if the uncertainties brought about by war subside, especially if the situation between Russia and Ukraine develops in a positive direction, energy prices could drop significantly, which would be conducive to a reduction in inflation and better performance of financial markets.
He also referred to the Iran war as a "war that was executed extremely well," and believed that achieving peace in the Middle East would not only be beneficial to the region but would ultimately also benefit the United States.
Since the beginning of this year, rising crude oil prices have continuously put pressure on the stock market. Investors are concerned that increasing energy costs will further drive up inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even raise them again.
As of now, in 2026, the price of crude oil in the United States has risen by 72% in total, with Brent crude oil seeing an increase of 78%. The rise in energy prices is also gradually being passed on to consumers: the U.S. Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) in September increased by 3.7% year-on-year, of which gasoline prices contributed more than half of that month's CPI increase.
Inflation continues to deviate from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, presenting a dilemma for monetary policy. Maintaining high interest rates may continue to suppress the economy and stock valuations, while premature relaxation of policy could lead to further continuation of inflationary pressures.
Akmann's optimistic assessment is based on the expectations of a reduction in war risks, a decline in energy prices, and a alleviation of inflationary pressures. However, this outlook still depends on whether the geopolitical situation and inflation trends will improve as he anticipates.
In addition to macro market analysis, Ackman also discussed the long-term investment opportunities that Pantheon Square is focused on. He is optimistic about Netflix ( Netflix, NFLX.O ), believing that concerns about the company's content reserves have been overly exaggerated. Investors should pay more attention to the company's management capabilities and user engagement.
After Netflix announced its financial results on Wednesday, its stock price fell by more than 5% due to mediocre performance in its advertising business and revenue forecasts; however, on Thursday, the stock price rebounded by over 3%. Ackman believes that short-term stock price fluctuations do not change the company's long-term investment value.
He stated that Netflix's current price-earnings ratio is around 18 times, which is "one of the lowest valuations in history," and he expects the company to achieve a profit growth rate in the high single digits to the mid-teens percent range in the foreseeable future.
"Netflix is a high-growth utility company," said Ackman. His judgment is that Netflix possesses both sustained growth potential and relatively stable user demand, and the current valuation does not fully reflect these advantages.
Akmann also considers Meta Platforms ( META.O ) to be one of the core holdings of the Pantheon Plaza portfolio.
Meta announced its third-quarter results on Wednesday, with revenue exceeding market expectations and providing strong guidance for the current quarter, yet the stock price still fell by 6% on Thursday. Ackman believes that in an environment where market participants have high leverage and trading periods are shortened, investors should not judge the value of a company based solely on the stock price performance on the first trading day after the financial report is released.
He is particularly optimistic about the potential of Meta in popularizing agent applications and mentioned the performance of the company's personal artificial intelligence agent Muse. Ackerman believes that Meta has already proven that artificial intelligence is helping to accelerate the company's business growth, therefore the current stock price still significantly underestimates the value of the company.
In February of this year, Ackman publicly disclosed his holdings in Meta. At that time, he pointed out that the long-term upside potential of Meta in the field of artificial intelligence meant that one of the world's finest companies was trading at a significantly discounted valuation.
He also believes that the investment in computing infrastructure by Meta is necessary and is expected to bring attractive returns in the future.
Akmann once again expressed his bullish stance on Fannie Mae ( Fannie Mae , FNMA.O ) and Freddie Mac ( Freddie Mac , FMCC.O ). He is a major shareholder in these two American housing finance institutions and believes that the related stocks have extremely asymmetric investment return potential.
"These stocks are going to increase tenfold in value. This is, to my knowledge, the most asymmetric investment in terms of risk and reward in the stock market," said Ackman.
He stated that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have rebuilt their capital bases, yet the market has not fully recognized the current capital levels of these two institutions. He mentioned that the current capital levels of these two institutions are five times their historical levels.
Akhman's perspective indicates that even though the market is still under pressure from war, inflation, and high interest rates, he remains optimistic about the long-term profitability and valuation recovery potential of some high-quality companies.
