AI Centers See a Recovery in More Affordable Alternative Market Rent: Realtor.com September Rent Report

The national median asking rent has fallen to $1,694 for the 38th consecutive month, but the decline in September was the slowest in three years.

Austin, Texas, USA, October 15th / PRNewswire / -- The September 2026 rental report ® indicates that the decline in the rental market in September was the slowest in three years. The current rental market is being affected by three factors: a cooling of the supply surge in sunny areas, tenants turning to more affordable alternative markets, and employment growth driven by the Bay Area AI. According to the report, among the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, the median asking rent for one-bedroom, one-room, and two-bedroom units decreased by 0.4% year-over-year to $1,694.

This marks the 38th consecutive month of year-on-year declines in rents. Current asking rents are 80 dollars lower than the peak in August 2022, representing a 4.5% decrease, which is a clear improvement for tenants after housing costs rose rapidly at the beginning of the year. At the same time, rents are still 214 dollars, or 14.5%, higher than pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the national market is now cheaper than its highs, but not yet at affordable levels.

In September, among the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, nearly 43.9% of single rooms, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom rental properties offered discounts, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from a year ago.

Realtor.com ® Senior Economist Jiayi Xu states: "Tenants have seen some relief, but rents are still significantly higher than before the pandemic. Although asking rents are below their 2022 peaks and discounts are still readily available, for many families, this relief does not equate to being affordable. As the market enters its usual autumn slowdown period, we expect monthly rents to soften, but any additional relief may be more limited."

Over the past year, the markets that have seen the greatest changes in rental dynamics are driven by three forces that are reshaping rental demand and supply: a cooling of the supply surge in sunbelt metropolitan areas after the pandemic, a shift towards more affordable alternative markets near high-cost cities, and employment growth related to AI in the Bay Area.

The demand driven by AI accelerates rent increases in the Bay Area

The Bay Area has seen the strongest increase in rents. In San Jose, the median asking rent rose by 6.0% year-over-year to a record $3,565; in San Francisco, rents increased by 4.8% to $3,057, only 48 dollars lower than the peak during the pandemic in the summer of 2022. The AI craze in this region is attracting young professionals seeking job opportunities, further increasing the demand for rentals. At the same time, the supply of affordable options has significantly decreased: over the past year, the proportion of affordable housing in San Jose has dropped from 51.9% to 24.3%, and in San Francisco, it has fallen from 47.6% to 28.1%. The combination of rising rents and reduced availability indicates that the rental market in the Bay Area is clearly tightening.

Xu Rent increases and the disappearance of discounts represent a double blow for tenants in the Bay Area. In San Jose, the proportion of properties offering discounts dropped from 51.9% to 24.3% within a year, a decrease of more than half, while rents rose to record highs. AI The craze is driving demand, and landlords are responding by tightening conditions.

Tenants seeking affordability are driving the demand for a low-to-high cost alternative market.

St. Louis, Minneapolis, Virginia Beach, Riverside, and Las Vegas have seen rents shift from falling to rising, as tenants look for more affordable options outside of the nearby high-cost markets. In the third quarter of 2026, 45.4% of rental demand in St. Louis came from Chicago; meanwhile, Chicago set a new median asking rent of $1,909 in September, a year-over-year increase of 2.3%. A similar trend is observed in Minneapolis, with Chicago accounting for 27.3% of its rental traffic from other areas.

This demand has helped reverse the rental trend: St. Louis has shifted from a year-over-year decrease of 4.4% to an increase of 2.0%; Minneapolis has shifted from a decrease of 3.4% to an increase of 1.7%; Virginia Beach has shifted from a decrease of 4.4% to an increase of 1.7%; Las Vegas has shifted from a decrease of 3.2% to an increase of 0.9%; Riverside has shifted from a decrease of 4.0% to an increase of 0.2%.

Supply-driven declines have slowed down in the sunbelt.

Austin, Oklahoma City, and Phoenix have benefited from a wave of multi-family housing construction after the pandemic, which once drove down rents. However, as the construction boom has cooled down, the rate of rent decline has also slowed. In Austin, the annual rent decrease narrowed from 7.8% in September 2025 to 2.3% in September 2026; in Oklahoma City, it narrowed from 6.5% to 1.4%; and in Phoenix, it narrowed from 5.8% to 1.9%. Tenants in these markets are still enjoying year-over-year savings, but the changing pace indicates that the strongest supply-driven downward pressure is beginning to weaken.

Markets with the greatest changes in rental trends

Leasing Market Snapshot: September 2026, 50 Largest Metropolitan Areas

Method Description

Leasing data as of September 2026 covers single rooms, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom units listed for rent on Realtor.com. The rental units include apartments as well as privately rented properties (apartment-style properties, townhouses, and single-family residences). We use rental sources that reliably report data in 50 of the largest metropolitan areas on a monthly basis. Realtor.com ® has been regularly publishing monthly rental trend reports since October 2020, with data history traceable back to March 2019. The discount rate is calculated based on all single rooms, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom rental properties listed on Realtor.com ®.

Regarding Realtor.com ®

For over 30 years, Realtor.com ® has been helping buyers, sellers, and tenants find their ideal homes through reliable insights, professional guidance, and powerful tools. Realtor.com ® is recognized as the number one real estate website most recommended by REALTOR ® agents, providing consumers with connection services and a full set of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com ® is operated by News Corp [ Nasdaq : NWS , NWSA ] [ ASX : NWS , NWSLV ], which includes Move and Inc.

Media contact: Mallory Micetich, [ email protected ]